Market & Industry Research
Maize Price Shocks & Household Food Security
The Government of Ghana and development partners needed district-level evidence on who was absorbing maize price spikes — not only where prices moved, but where consumption baskets broke first.
Volatile maize prices disrupted food consumption patterns and threatened dietary diversity across Ghanaian households.
Comprehensive econometric analysis of market access as a mediator of price shock impacts.
Improved resilience strategies and evidence for Feed the Future Innovation Lab and Ministry of Food and Agriculture policy briefs.
Overview
The Government of Ghana and development partners needed district-level evidence on who was absorbing maize price spikes — not only where prices moved, but where consumption baskets broke first.
We framed the engagement around a single ministerial decision: how to sequence buffer stock releases relative to lean-season cash transfers.
Methodology
- Merged geocoded household panels with high-frequency market price trackers and travel-time surfaces to periodic markets.
- Mediation analysis with bootstrap confidence intervals; multiple imputation for intermittent survey rounds.
- Co-design workshops with MoFA statisticians to validate market catchment definitions before locking regressions.
Outcomes
- District heatmaps adopted in the national food security technical committee slide deck.
- Two policy briefs with explicit targeting thresholds tied to market access scores.
- Replication code transferred to the national statistics training curriculum module.
Partners
- USAID Feed the Future Innovation Lab
- Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Ghana)