Key findings
- Farmers who score higher on forward-looking aspiration indices enroll at meaningfully higher rates, even after controlling for wealth and plot characteristics.
- Non-cognitive skills shift sensitivity to basis risk narratives in extension messaging — generic risk literacy modules underperform tailored storylines.
- Peer networks amplify uptake when early adopters are matched on soil type, not only village geography.
Context
Index insurance has struggled with low renewal in drought-prone districts. Product designers often attribute this to basis risk alone; our work shows demand also hinges on how farmers imagine future selves and interpret correlated shocks within their cooperatives.
Identification strategy
We combine baseline psychometric modules, panel enrollment records, and randomized message arms that vary emphasis on solidarity payouts versus individual asset protection.
Dynamic panel models separate state dependence from genuine learning about product quality.
Design takeaways
Bundling insurance reminders with aspiration-building agricultural extension — without overpromising payouts — increases sustained participation.
Premium subsidies are more cost-effective when paired with transparent basis-risk dashboards at district level.