Key findings
- Pass-through to retail fertilizer is rapid; pass-through to staple food prices is delayed and state-dependent on marketing board behavior.
- Exchange rate shocks and freight indices load on distinct impulse responses — composite import cost indices obscure policy levers.
Macro linkages
Post-2021 supply disruptions renewed debate on fertilizer subsidies versus soil-health investments. We quantify how much of consumer food inflation was mediated through input channels versus energy and transport margins.
Methods
Bayesian VARs with informative priors on lag structure are estimated on monthly customs, wholesale, and retail series. Identification uses sign restrictions consistent with pass-through theory.